TOTO Changes from 6/45 to 6/49

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Singapore Pools is changing the TOTO lottery game from 6/45 to 6/49 from 7th Oct 2014. With that change, the betting costs are going to go up though a larger top prize of $1 million is being dangled.

Under the 6/45 TOTO game, the odds of hitting the jackpot is 1 in 8,145,060 and winning the top prize is close to impossible.

With the revamp, the calculations by Singapore Pools put the odds of winning the jackpot at 1 in 13.98 million with the odds of winning any prize at 1 in 54. Statistically, it is an extremely long shot to win the top prize.

The calculations are abstract for the reality that faces punter is more simplistically put as being based on the odds of 1 in 2... You either win or not win.

The best way to anchor winning expectations is perhaps juxtaposing it with concrete examples. Centre for Addiction and Mental Health from Canada put it very nicely for the 6/49 game.
  • A person has a 1 in 3 million chance of sighting an UFO. That's almost 5 times more likely than winning the jackpot.
  • You are more likely to die of a flesh eating disease (1 in 1 million) than winning the lottery. That's 14 times more likely than winning the jackpot.
  • You are more likely to be killed by lightening (1 in 56,439) than win the lottery. That's almost 250 times more likely than winning the jackpot.
  • You are more likely to be killed in a traffic accident driving 16 km to purchase a ticket than winning the jackpot
  • Imagine you are standing blindfolded on a football field holding a pin. A friend has released an ant on the field. Your chance of piercing that ant with your pin is about one in 14 million, the same odds of winning the Lotto 6/49 jackpot.
  • The odds of winning the top prize at maximum coin play on the slot machines ranges from 1 in 4,096 to 1 in 33,554,000.
source: http://www.problemgambling.ca/en/aboutgamblingandproblemgambling/pages/whatareodds.aspx

A totally rational person should then try his luck on lottery games with better odds. For sanctioned games of chances in Singapore, 4D odds of winning the top prize is 1 in 10,000 while Singapore Big Sweep odds of winning the top prize is 1 in 3,500,000. Paying the $100 entry level into the Resort World Sentosa or Marina Bay Sands casinos, tables games will offer significantly better odds than the revamp TOTO game.

Of course, gamblers are never rational. Bets will still be made on TOTO to buy into the hope of lives being transformed by winning the top prize, however slim chances may be. Look to the cascading mechanism of the Singapore TOTO game, odds will improve significantly when the cascading conditions are activated.

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